Best-of-Seven Series Probability Calculator
From a single-game win probability, compute the chance a team wins a best-of-seven series (first to 4 wins), the odds of each outcome (4-0 to 4-3), and the expected number of games.
Input
Enter the per-game win probability to compute the chance the team wins the series by reaching the required wins first, along with the odds of each finish.
Enter 0 to 100 (e.g. 55 means a 55 percent chance to win one game)
Wins required to clinch the series (4 for best-of-seven)
Result
Series win probability
60.8%
Average games
5.8 games
Sweep (fewest games) probability
9.2 %
Chance it goes to game 7
30.3 %
Probability of each finish
| Finish | Games | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | 4 games | 9.2 % |
| 4-1 | 5 games | 16.5 % |
| 4-2 | 6 games | 18.5 % |
| 4-3 | 7 games | 16.7 % |
The probability of winning in exactly wins-needed wins and k losses is C(wins-needed minus 1 plus k, k) times p to the wins-needed power times (1-p) to the k power; their sum is the series win probability.
How it works
- Assumes the per-game win probability p is constant and each game is independent. Home advantage and pitching matchups are not modeled.
- The probability of winning in exactly 4 wins and k losses is C(3+k, k) times p to the 4 times (1-p) to the k, where k is the loss count from 0 to 3.
- The series win probability is the sum of the probabilities of each finish (4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3).
- The expected number of games weights both the finishes your team wins and the finishes it loses by their probabilities.
- Wins needed defaults to 4 (best-of-seven), but you can change it to any value such as first to 3 or first to 5.
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Best-of-Seven Series Probability Calculator