Flight Accident Probability Calculator
Estimate the chance of being in a fatal aviation accident over a lifetime from the per-flight accident rate and your number of flights, with a Monte Carlo simulation and histogram.
Input
Enter the per-flight fatal accident rate and your lifetime number of flights to find the chance of at least one accident.
Enter as fatal accidents per million flights
Total flights you expect to take in your life
Result
Chance of at least one accident over 500 flights
0.01percent
Roughly a 1 in 5,000,000 chance per flight
Chance of staying safe
99.99 percent
Compared with driving
About 95 times safer than driving
Flights for a 50 percent chance
About 3,465,736 flights
Random simulation
Each press runs many random lifetimes to check the observed accident rate.
Press the button to see results.
How it works
- From the per-flight fatal accident rate p and lifetime number of flights n, the chance of at least one accident is 1-(1-p)^n.
- Enter the rate as accidents per million flights; it is divided by one million to get the per-flight probability.
- The chance of staying safe is (1-p)^n, the probability of completing every flight without an accident.
- The comparison with driving uses a fixed illustrative reference value, not a measured statistic that varies by region or year.
- The simulation generates random numbers when you press the button, finds the first accident flight in each trial, and shows the observed rate and a histogram.
- Each flight accident is assumed independent. Real rates vary by aircraft and route, so results are only a rough guide.
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Flight Accident Probability Calculator