keisoku

Lottery Winning Odds Calculator

Pick a lottery type (Loto 6, Loto 7, Mini Loto, or Jumbo) and the number of tickets to calculate your odds of hitting the jackpot, your chance of winning any prize, and the expected payout rate. Compare the odds against everyday events to feel just how unlikely a win really is.

Input

Lottery type
tickets

Result

Chance of hitting the jackpot with 10 ticket(s) of Loto 6

approx. 1/609,646

That's roughly 0.00016% (per 10 ticket(s))

Winning the jackpot is about as likely as "Flipping a coin 20 times and getting all heads".

Chance of winning any prize

approx. 24.2%

1/4.1

Expected payout rate

45%

Capped at 50% by law

Cost of 10 ticket(s)

2,000 yen

Expected return approx. 901 yen

Winning chance by prize tier (at least once with 10 ticket(s))

1st prizeapprox. 200M yen

0.00016%approx. 1 in 609,646

2nd prizeapprox. 10M yen

0.00098%approx. 1 in 101,608

3rd prizeapprox. 300K yen

0.04%approx. 1 in 2,823

4th prizeapprox. 6,800 yen

1.6%approx. 1 in 61.5

5th prize1,000 yen

22.9%approx. 1 in 4.4

Compared with everyday events (jackpot = 1 in 6,096,454 per ticket)

Scoring a hole-in-one in golf (one round)

approx. 1 in 12,000

Jackpot is about 508x harder to hit

Dying in a traffic accident in a year

approx. 1 in 30,000

Jackpot is about 203x harder to hit

Being struck by lightning in a year

approx. 1 in 1,000,000

Jackpot is about 6.1x harder to hit

Winning first prize in the New Year's postcard lottery

approx. 1 in 1,000,000

Jackpot is about 6.1x harder to hit

Flipping a coin 20 times and getting all heads

approx. 1 in 1,048,576

Jackpot is about 5.8x harder to hit

How it works

  • The jackpot probability is calculated as the chance of winning at least once with K tickets: 1 − (1 − per-ticket winning probability) raised to the power K.
  • The per-tier probabilities for Loto 6, Loto 7, and Mini Loto are theoretical values derived from the number of possible number combinations. The year-end Jumbo figures are an example based on the number of winning tickets per unit (e.g. 20 million tickets), and real odds vary from draw to draw.
  • The "chance of winning any prize" is the probability of winning in at least one of all the prize tiers.
  • The expected payout rate is the expected return per ticket divided by the ticket price. Prize amounts vary, so approximate figures are used; by law a lottery's payout rate is capped at 50% (the rest funds public projects and the like).
  • The probabilities of everyday events are commonly cited approximate values. They vary depending on assumptions and are not exact figures.
  • This is a reference tool to help you grasp the odds intuitively. Please enjoy buying lottery tickets within your means.